In the late summer of 2016, Caspian terns were discovered in Cape Krusenstern National Monument in Alaska, 1000 miles farther north than ever previously recorded. These majestic birds have never been seen this close to the North Pole. Do these birds sense something bad about to happen, and are they attempting to escape it?
The year 2016 was the hottest year since we started keeping records. Following 2016, the years 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 have been among the hottest ten years in the temperature record. Based on all current data, 2023 is expected to become the hottest year in humankind's history.
These temperature trends clearly show that the Earth is warming and show no sign of stopping. There can be no doubt, that barring a major volcanic eruption, the remainder of this decade will continue to grow hotter. But the 2030s will be even hotter.
According to NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory based on Mauna Loa, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in Earth's atmosphere have now reached more than 419 parts per million as of November 2023, and they are increasing at about 3 ppm on an annual basis. During the last 10,000 years, carbon dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere averaged about 280 parts per million. During the last Ice Age, carbon dioxide levels were approximately 180 ppm. Based on data gathered from ice cores in Antarctica, CO2 levels are higher today than they've been at any time in the last 800,000 years.
Making matters worse, methane has seen an increase from 714 parts per billion in the year 1750, to an average of almost 2,000 parts per billion today, the highest it's been in at least the last 650,000 years. As a greenhouse gas, methane is 34 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Some measurements taken around Siberia in January, 2017 show methane levels at more than 2,500 parts per billion, indicating methane is seeping from the Arctic Ocean.
Carbon dioxide and methane are considered greenhouse gases.
The following is an excerpt from my novel, Hot Planet:
“Ever since the beginning of Earth and the creation of Earth’s atmosphere, there has always been a slight greenhouse effect. This is because carbon dioxide and water vapor have always been present in the atmosphere. The characteristics of water vapor and carbon dioxide are such that both are completely transparent to visible light, but both are capable of retaining infrared energy, the heat part of the spectrum.
“Because of this slight greenhouse effect, Earth has always been a warm planet. Let me emphasize that. We have not had a warm planet just because of sunlight; it’s due to Earth’s atmosphere working in combination with the sun.
“We know that the sun by itself does not create enough heat to keep the planet as warm as the Earth is. For example, if our planet were to rely solely upon sunlight, all of Earth’s oceans would have frozen millions of years ago. Instead of a water planet, we would have had an ice planet. The composition of the planet, its materials at the surface, just doesn’t allow it to totally absorb and retain the infrared part of the sun’s spectrum.
“But Earth’s atmosphere absorbs the infrared rays, and it holds onto them for long periods of time. If it weren’t for the atmosphere, with its water vapor and carbon dioxide, the heat from the sun would just strike the Earth and then escape back into space. The Earth would be a cold, frozen planet. So a partial greenhouse effect is desirable, and that’s just what we’ve had throughout the history of modern man. As long as we can remember, our climate has been temperate.
“However, the Earth is walking a fine line; too much water vapor and carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere and we get a very strong greenhouse effect; not enough water vapor and carbon dioxide and we get no greenhouse effect. For millions of years, even given ice ages, everything’s been in balance and Earth has experienced relatively stable temperatures."
Water vapor is also considered a greenhouse gas, but it is not long-lived. However, when it condenses it can lead to the formation of heavy precipitation. Lately, we have been seeing "rain bomb" events in various places around the Earth.
Just prior to 2016, I visited the Kitt Peak National Observatory and spoke to Dr. Katy Garmany. Kitt Peak is a solar observatory that constantly studies the sun. Dr. Garmany is an astronomer. I asked her if the sun's output has recently increased. She emphatically told me that it hasn't. In fact, in 2016 and the years just prior, the sun was at solar minimum.
The sun's output is considered to be a natural variable. But if the sun's output hasn't increased, there is only one explanation as to why the Earth is suddenly and rapidly warming. It is because of a dramatic increase in the level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more infrared heat is trapped, resulting in a warmer climate. For an excellent science video of how greenhouse gases trap heat explained in the simplest way possible, please see this Climate Kids video from NASA.
The following facts are incontrovertible:
Carbon dioxide levels: Increasing
Sea level: Rising
Sea surface temperatures: Increasing
Atmospheric temperatures: Increasing
Tundra: Thawing rapidly
Methane levels: Increasing
Glaciers: Retreating
Ice sheets: On the verge of rapid collapse
Unusual rain events: Increasing
Almost all carbon dioxide emissions currently come from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Other emissions are coming from deforestation and the destruction of forests due to massive forest fires.
NASA did a study about ten years ago and found that most carbon dioxide is being emitted from the transportation sector: cars, trucks, buses, trains, and airplanes.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions:
Gasoline: 19.37 pounds of carbon dioxide are created for every gallon burned
Diesel: 22.46 pounds of carbon dioxide are created for every gallon burned
Jet Fuel: 21.50 pounds of carbon dioxide are created for every gallon burned
Aviation gas: 18.32 pounds of carbon dioxide are created for every gallon burned
Worldwide Carbon Emissions (from all sources):
About 40 billion tons per year
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