Extrapolating Data

The word extrapolate is defined as being able to predict a trend by projecting recent past experience or data forward into the future. Therefore if we extrapolate recent climate data, it appears the future looks extremely bleak in terms of climate change, especially when it comes to heat waves.

All data indicate that February, 2024 will be the hottest February globally since humans started keeping records. This makes the ninth straight month that the monthly global temperature record has been broken.

It started in June, 2023, the hottest June in recorded history. That month was followed by July, the hottest July in recorded history. Then came August, the hottest August in recorded history. Then came September, the hottest September in recorded history. October, November, and December were more of the same. Now in 2024 the trend is continuing. January, 2024 was the hottest January in recorded history. And now, so is February. All of this follows the year 2023, overall the hottest year since record keeping began.

So the question is what will our Northern Hemisphere summer be like? How hot will it get in June, July, and August of 2024? Scientists are normally reluctant to make these kinds of predictions because they have their reputations to think about. They can’t afford to be wrong.

But I think it’s safe to say we will see unprecedented heat waves this summer that will likely kill thousands, if not millions of people. Everyone needs to start preparing now for extreme heat, the kind of heat we’ve never experienced before.

And don’t think you’re immune just because you live in a northern city. In the month of July, 1936, a high pressure system stalled out over the Great Plains for the entire month of July. North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma saw temperatures reaching or exceeding 120 degrees. Nebraska hit 118 degrees. Nighttime lows were in the eighties and nineties. On July 25^th, the overnight low minimum in Lincoln, Nebraska was 91 degrees, and by that afternoon it hit 115 degrees, only a 24 degree difference. I’m not talking about a heat index value. I’m talking about actual air temperatures.

High pressure systems have a mind of their own. They can develop over any region of the country, and if they stall out, the heat wave will be long and brutal. The heat wave of 1936 was indeed anomalous, but if a similar high pressure system developed today, because of so much more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we would likely see temperatures in the mid-130s, possibly even low 140s. If that were to happen, it would become a matter of survival.

In my opinion the best thing the average American can do right now is to buy a home generator that will provide backup electricity when the power grid fails, and it will fail in extreme heat. In fact, it may likely fail for days at a time. Do you honestly expect linesmen to go out and effectively repair the grid in 120 or 130 degree daytime temperatures and 100 degree plus nighttime temperatures?

The second best thing the average American can do right now is to ensure their home is well insulated. You don’t want your generator to do any more work than it has to. This will not simply be a question of convenience and being comfortable, but more like a question of survival, not just for you, but also for the survival of your pets.