In February of 2024 sea surface temperatures were the highest since we started keeping accurate records. And in March of 2024, sea surface temperatures were even slightly higher. According to Carlos Nobre, one of the world’s most notable climatologists, no known computer model predicted this was going to happen.
Warm February and March sea surface temperatures often correlate with an active hurricane season.
The worst part is that most of the anomalous sea surface temperatures occurred in the North Atlantic during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter when the sun wasn’t striking this part of the Earth with full force. Usually sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic don’t approach this level until the month of July. But the ocean temperatures we’ve seen in February and March were actually higher than what we see in summertime. In fact, higher than at any time in recorded history.
As of today, it now appears that March, 2024 was the hottest March globally, both air and oceans, since we started keeping accurate records. This is the tenth month in a row that the temperature has continued to climb into uncharted territory. Since the advent of human civilization, the Earth has never been this hot.
But of special concern are the ocean temperatures. They beg the question—what will sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic be like in July, August, and September when they reach their seasonal peak?
This month Colorado State University will release its hurricane predictions for the upcoming hurricane season and in May, NOAA will make public its predictions. Because the formation of hurricanes is extremely complex, it will be interesting to find out what NOAA has to say. Major hurricanes must have three critical elements in order to form: high sea surface temperatures, lack of wind shear, and a moist atmosphere.
Currently we have the first element in place, but we don’t yet know whether we will have the other two elements. America’s hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. It usually peaks out in mid-September.
In their annual global report for 2023, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported that globally, sea surface temperatures were record hot for the months from April through December. This trend has continued through the first three months of 2024.
Here is what the NCEI stated in their 2023 report:
“Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is essential for understanding and modeling global climate since > 90% of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the oceans. Further, expansion due to increased ocean heat contributes to sea level rise… The annual global ocean heat content (OHC) for 2023 for the upper 2000 meters was record high, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The five highest OHC have all occurred in the last five years (2019–2023).”
There can be no doubt the oceans are warming exceptionally rapidly. If, during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, there is abundant moisture in the atmosphere and lack of wind shear we will likely see the most devastating hurricane season in history.
No wonder the major insurance companies are fleeing Florida in droves. Apparently, unlike the climate change denialists, the insurance companies have seen the handwriting on the wall. They’re gettin’ out while the gettin’s good.
To me, the most interesting aspect of all this is that the hurricane season will peak right before the November presidential election. How will Trump react if a super hurricane hits Palm Beach in September and Mar a Lago is turned into a swamp?
Stay tuned—we may be in for a wild ride.
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