Currently there are only five categories of hurricanes in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. They range from Category 1 to Category 5, Category 5 being the strongest. (To see the wind speed chart visit the National Weather Service.) Category 5 is considered a catastrophic hurricane with wind speeds in excess of 156 miles an hour.
The NWS cites Hurricane Andrew as an example of a Cat 5 hurricane. Here is what the NWS says about Andrew:
“The maximum sustained surface wind speed (1-min average at 10 meters [about 33 ft] elevation) during landfall over Florida is estimated at 125 kt (about 145 mph), with gusts at that elevation to at least 150 kt (about 175 mph). The sustained wind speed corresponds to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (see addendum on upgrade to category 5). It should be noted that these wind speeds are what is estimated to have occurred within the (primarily northern) eyewall in an open environment such as at an airport, at the standard 10-meter height. The wind experienced at other inland sites was subject to complex interactions of the airflow with trees, buildings, and other obstacles in its path.”
The hurricane meteorological team at Colorado State University has just released their 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This forecast predicts there will be more hurricanes than CSU has ever issued in its history in its April forecast.
Here is what CSU stated:
“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
CSU makes no reference to super hurricanes, but there are some hurricane experts who think the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale should be revised to include a Category 6 super hurricane.
What is a super hurricane? It’s a major hurricane with wind speeds exceeding 200 miles an hour. These major hurricanes are literally off the charts in terms of the current Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Has the Earth ever experienced a super hurricane? The answer is yes, it has. The best example is Hurricane Patricia in the year 2015. From Wikipedia:
“Hurricane Patricia was the most powerful tropical cyclone on record worldwide in terms of maximum sustained winds and the second-most intense on record worldwide in terms of pressure, with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg), behind Typhoon Tip 870 mbar. Originating from a sprawling disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec south of Mexico, in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical depression on October 20. Initial development was slow, with only modest strengthening within the first day of its classification. The system later became a tropical storm and was named Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Exceptionally favorable environmental conditions fueled explosive intensification on October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a near-record pace. On October 23, the hurricane achieved its record peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 215 mph (345 km/h). This made it the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere and the strongest globally in terms of one-minute maximum sustained winds.”
Just prior to Patricia’s formation, according to NOAA, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Tehuantepec were 87.44 degrees Fahrenheit. As of today, April 10, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are 79 degrees, the same as we would normally see in July. Based on the current trend, I think it’s safe to say SSTs in the Atlantic will easily be approaching or exceeding 87 degrees in September and October, just right for the formation of a super hurricane.
Please remember, there’s no such thing as resilience when it comes to a major hurricane. All you can do is evacuate and get out of its way. What kind of damage would Miami see if a hurricane with sustained winds of 215 miles an hour made a direct hit? No one knows because it’s never happened before, and like every other aspect of climate change, all we can and should do is to prepare for the worst.
Recently, Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Americans are “safer than ever from climate disasters,” arguing that environmentalists were pushing an “ideological agenda" while using "fear tactics." But what DeSantis fails to note, as do all climate change denialists, is that Mother Nature has no ideology. She simply reacts to changing inputs, such as the huge increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.
As of today, carbon dioxide levels have suddenly reached 426 parts per million and are continuing their relentless increase.
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